Turkey's Swift Military Aid to Pakistan Amid India Tensions Stuns New Delhi

For India, it likely didn't anticipate that amidst the heightened tensions with Pakistan and before any US military aid reached India, military assistance from Turkey would arrive in Pakistan first. The tons of missiles and drones unloaded from numerous transport aircraft have placed significant pressure on the Indian military.

01 Small-Scale Conflicts Erupt Between India and Pakistan

The conflict between Pakistan and India has abruptly escalated from verbal sparring to physical engagement, with intense exchanges of fire along the Line of Control. However, for the time being, both sides appear to be intentionally controlling the scope and scale of the clashes, keeping them as small-scale conflicts. Neither India nor Pakistan desires a full-blown war.

India fears that a full-scale conflict with Pakistan could create an opportunity for China to exploit the situation, potentially leading to a difficult two-front war. Pakistan, having not achieved victory in the previous three Indo-Pakistani wars and grappling with active Baloch terrorist organizations within its borders, also fears being drawn into a two-front conflict and is therefore hesitant to make any rash moves.

For Pakistan, there is a clear military strength disparity compared to India. While the Indian military often faces ridicule for certain incidents, it possesses a full range of necessary weaponry, including aircraft carriers, advanced fighter jets, and long-range ballistic missiles, positioning it as arguably the fourth-largest military power globally.

Pakistan, constrained by its smaller landmass and economic capacity, has historically lagged behind India in military development. Following defeats in previous Indo-Pakistani wars, Pakistan has heavily invested in its military, importing significant amounts of land, sea, and air equipment from China. It has now built a substantial "Chinese-equipped" military, experiencing rapid growth in strength. However, while Pakistan might gain an advantage in small-scale conflicts, it would likely be at a disadvantage in a large-scale war based on current overall capacity.

02 Turkey Sends Large Quantities of Weapons and Ammunition to Pakistan

However, with the recent influx of substantial weaponry and ammunition from another country, Pakistan's concerns in this area have been alleviated. Reports indicate that Turkish Air Force C-130 transport aircraft arrived in Pakistan on April 27th, carrying a full load of KARAOK portable anti-tank missiles, MAM-L, MAM-C, and KEMANKES guided bombs.

The arrival of this military hardware has significantly boosted the confidence of the Pakistani military. For Pakistan currently, the primary limitation isn't necessarily the performance of its weapons compared to India's, but rather the quantity. With these new weapons and ammunition, Pakistan will have greater confidence when facing Indian forces.

At a time of such high tension between India and Pakistan, Turkey's delivery of a large amount of weapons and ammunition to Pakistan signals its stance to the outside world, demonstrating its support for Pakistan. India, if it chooses to act at this moment, will have to consider the possibility of Turkish intervention.

On April 22nd, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Ankara, reaffirming their commitment to cooperation and promoting the development of bilateral relations. Between 2016 and 2019, Turkey surpassed the United States to become Pakistan's fourth-largest arms importer, while Pakistan became Turkey's third-largest arms export market. In the procurement of attack helicopters, Pakistan even opted for Turkey's T129 attack helicopter over China's Z-10.

Turkey possesses the second-largest army within NATO. Apart from the United States, Turkey does not need to defer to any other NATO country. Especially after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Turkey has leveraged the Ukrainian theater to significantly boost sales of its domestic military products and further promote the development of its defense industry. It has even successfully conducted the maiden flight of its fifth-generation fighter jet and commissioned its first unmanned aerial vehicle carrier. Aside from nuclear capabilities, Turkey can be considered a military power.

Pakistan, with external assistance, has achieved notable success in ballistic missiles and nuclear capabilities, which正好 fills Turkey's shortcomings in this area. Coupled with their shared religious beliefs, the relationship between the two countries is very close. Regarding the India-Pakistan conflict, Turkey is unlikely to stand idly by.

03 Large-Scale Conflict Between India and Pakistan is Unlikely

Based on the current situation, this conflict appears to be more of an outlet for pent-up emotions, using a convenient pretext. Following a terrorist attack in Indian-controlled territory, the Indian Prime Minister placed blame on Pakistan, accusing them of responsibility and inciting military confrontation, essentially to divert attention from the domestic government's poor governance.

Due to economic difficulties and even recession, the public is actually dissatisfied with the Indian government. This dissatisfaction, under India's loose administrative system, leads to frequent internal unrest in remote areas, with groups opposing the Indian government's rule. This has also resulted in the rampant activity of terrorist organizations within India.

However, the Indian government is unable to resolve all of this. On the one hand, remote areas are beyond the effective jurisdiction of the Indian military, and on the other hand, the guerrilla warfare tactics of the opposition make it difficult for the Indian military to defend against. With increasing internal turmoil and economic hardship, the discontent of the grassroots population continues to rise. Therefore, the Indian government needs to find a scapegoat, and Pakistan has become the best one.

Both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed states. This nuclear deterrence ensures that a large-scale conflict between them is unlikely. Therefore, this current conflict will most likely remain within a limited scope and will not escalate into a full-blown war. Similar to the long-standing opposition in the Kashmir region, the conflicts between India and Pakistan there have persisted for decades, and the current clashes are likewise minor skirmishes.